The comprehensive escalation of the international trade war will have an impact on China's photovoltaic industry
Recently, many overseas countries have issued relevant policies for Chinese companies. The United States has decided to exempt photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries from new tariffs within two years and is preparing to ban the import of all products in Xinjiang from June 21, 2022. Europe has passed the "Anti-Forced Labor Customs". "Measures Resolution", India decided to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar fluorine-coated backsheets, Chinese enterprises' export trade is clouded over, and the international trade war has broken out. In the face of such a severe market environment, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises will be able to rely on their strong competitive advantages. Steady and far-reaching, seek opportunities in crises, and open up new situations in changing situations.
The United States suspends new tariffs on photovoltaic modules in four Southeast Asian countries, and the problem of non-Xinjiang manufacturing is becoming more and more prominent
On June 6, the White House of the United States issued a statement, in response to the previous proposal to open the anti-circumvention investigation of photovoltaic modules in the four Southeast Asian countries, regardless of the final result, it is possible to impose new tariffs on photovoltaic cell modules in Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam. Exemption period, this new measure is expected to promote the rapid development of the US photovoltaic market in the short term.
Looking back on this incident, on March 28, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced that it would file an investigation into Chinese PV module manufacturers’ actions to evade anti-dumping and countervailing duties by transferring some of their manufacturing operations to Southeast Asian countries. The investigation will cover Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, four countries in Southeast Asia, involving Trina, Canadian Solar, GCL Integration, LONGi, Jinko, JA Solar, Talesun, Chint and other leading companies in China and even the world's photovoltaic products, with far-reaching influence.
After the establishment of this anti-circumvention investigation, many project companies in the United States have postponed their purchase of goods due to the uncertainty of module companies, and the progress of installation is very worrying. Due to the major market disruption caused by the draft to the photovoltaic industry and its devastating impact on workers and businesses in various states, 19 governors jointly signed a letter urging the U.S. government to end the review of the anti-circumvention of photovoltaic tariffs as soon as possible, and finally the United States issued relevant policies, Suspended new tariffs on photovoltaic modules in four Southeast Asian countries, and proposed to vigorously develop photovoltaic production capacity in the United States to meet local demand as soon as possible, reduce imports, and promote employment.
Although the current anti-circumvention investigation has not stopped, no matter what the result is, the United States will not impose new tariffs on photovoltaic products in Southeast Asia in the past two years. Coupled with the growing demand for renewable energy in the United States, the local production capacity cannot meet the local demand in a short time. Demand will still rely on imports for a long time, which is good for Chinese companies building factories in Southeast Asia, and shipments are expected to usher in rapid growth; on the other hand, the United States plans to ban the import of all products in Xinjiang from June 21, 2022 The problem of non-Xinjiang manufacturing is becoming more and more prominent. Although China has a huge non-Xinjiang production capacity, companies need to provide evidence to prove that the products exported to the United States do not contain ingredients produced in Xinjiang or listed entities, and the export of some components faces the risk of withholding. In the medium and long term, , after Chinese companies prepare sufficient supporting materials, export to the United States will also be safe.
Europe passes 'anti-forced labour' resolution, expected to have very limited impact
Although the impact of the anti-circumvention investigation in the United States has temporarily come to an end, the issue of non-Xinjiang manufacturing has returned to the public eye. Europe recently passed the "Resolution on Anti-Forced Labor Customs Measures", requiring customs in EU countries to take measures to prohibit "forced labor products" "Entering the EU market, it also proposed to establish a list of companies and regions involved in "forced labor". The list is not yet clear, and it will involve many industries including photovoltaics. It is expected that the legislation will be completed in September this year. No substantial impact.
According to SolarPower Europe statistics, by the end of 2021, the domestic cell/module production capacity in Europe is only 0.8GW/8.3GW, and the silicon material production capacity corresponding to 20.7GW modules. The EU alone has added 25.9GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021, far exceeding the local capacity supply; at the same time, in order to cope with the energy crisis and get rid of energy dependence, the European REPowerEU also proposed that the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 320GW in 2025. The target, the installed capacity demand It is very huge, and as China is the world's largest production base of photovoltaic industry chain, Europe's pace of accelerating the construction of new energy will inevitably be made in China; in terms of supply, according to the new statistics of Guosheng Electric, the nominal production capacity of non-Xinjiang silicon materials in China by the end of 2021 will reach It is estimated that by the end of 2022, the nominal production capacity of non-Xinjiang silicon materials in China will reach 720,000 tons, which can fully meet the local demand in Europe. In addition, Chinese companies have begun to prepare for the manufacturing issue in non-Xinjiang. At present, some companies have prepared relevant traceability materials to deal with this risk. On the whole, even if the legislation is passed in September, Chinese companies can deal with it smoothly. It is expected that the impact will be affected. very limited.
India decides to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar fluorine-coated backsheets
Coincidentally, on June 15, the Ministry of Finance of India ruled on the "China Fluorine-Coated Backsheet Anti-dumping Case" submitted by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry. It is required to impose a tariff of US$762/ton on the fluorine-coated backsheets (excluding transparent backsheets) produced by Suzhou Zhonglai Photovoltaic New Materials Co., Ltd. imported from any country; imported from any country in China, non-Jolywood The fluorine-coated backsheet (excluding transparent backsheet) produced by New Materials Company is subject to a tariff of US$908/ton; for the fluorine-coated backsheet (excluding transparent backsheet) produced by other countries but ultimately imported from China, any backsheet company’s fluorine-coated backsheet (excluding the Transparent backsheet) is subject to a tariff of $908/ton; however, duties on transparent backsheet products are excluded.
In terms of production capacity, solar backsheets produced in China currently account for about 90% of the global market share, while India’s local backsheet production capacity is relatively small and cannot meet local demand for the time being. In the short term, it is still mainly imported from China, and The raw materials, production equipment and core technology patents required for backplane production are all located in China. The production technology is mature, the scale effect is significant, and the advantages are obvious. It is expected that India's backplane production technology and production capacity will be difficult to surpass China in a short period of time. There is no way to fundamentally get rid of the Made in China problem.
To sum up, the United States, Europe, and India have all issued relevant policies for China's photovoltaic industry. The fundamental purpose is to suppress China's photovoltaic industry and support its local photovoltaic industry chain. , the local industrial chains of the United States, Europe and India will achieve production capacity comparable to China in the short term, and they do not have competitive advantages in terms of technology and scale effects. Recklessly oppose the entry of Chinese photovoltaic products into the local market, which will have a negative impact on the development of the local photovoltaic market. Adverse effects, Chinese manufacturing will still dominate in a short period of time.