A few days ago, the National Energy Administration issued a notice, proposing to promote the construction of distributed photovoltaic rooftops throughout the county (cities, districts), and the proportion of the total roof area of the party and government agencies in the pilot counties (cities, districts) that can be installed for photovoltaic power generation shall not be less than 50%; The total roof area of schools, hospitals, village committees and other public buildings that can be installed with photovoltaic power generation shall not be less than 40%; the installed photovoltaic power generation shall account for no less than 30% of the total roof area of industrial and commercial buildings; the installed photovoltaic power generation shall account for the total roof area of rural residents The proportion is not less than 20%.
The pilot work should adhere to the principle of market leadership and full competition, and the rooftop distributed photovoltaic development market should be open to all qualified enterprises. The specific development and construction shall be independently determined by the roof property unit in accordance with the principle of marketization. Grid enterprises focus on strengthening the upgrade and transformation of the distribution network and access services to effectively ensure the large-scale access demand for distributed photovoltaics in the pilot areas and ensure the safety of electricity use.
The pressure of “carbon neutrality and carbon peaking” is very high. There are four ways to achieve the goal of zero carbon: zero-carbon energy, zero-carbon transportation, zero-carbon buildings and zero-carbon life, among which zero-carbon energy occupies a decisive position. Previous data showed that if China can build a 67% high proportion of wind and photovoltaics, it will be able to achieve the goal of 1.5 temperature control and carbon neutrality. The development of rooftop photovoltaics is an intensive development through the integration of existing resources, which helps reduce peak power loads, optimizes investment in the distribution network, and guides residents' green energy consumption.
After the news was released, the major securities companies gave their own photovoltaic roof space calculation data, of which Soochow Securities' logic and data are the most detailed. The research report pointed out that assuming a national pilot program, it is assumed that 80% of county-level institutions across the country have reached the 100GW installed capacity (50% of installed capacity) corresponding to energy-saving institutions; the current rural residential area is about 27 billion square meters, and the average floor is assumed to be 2 floors. That is, 50% of the residential area is the roof area, and assuming that 50% of the roof area is the photovoltaic area, the installed capacity per unit area is 150 watts/square meter. It can be calculated that 20% of the minimum installed capacity corresponds to the installed capacity of 203 GW . The current industrial and commercial building area is 17.9 billion square meters, with an average of 2 floors. Assuming that 80% of the area is the area where photovoltaics can be installed, the installed capacity per unit area is 150 watts per square meter. The minimum installation rate of 30% corresponds to an installation potential of 322GW. Adding the two together, my country's total space exceeds 600GW, which is 2.36 times the current cumulative total installed photovoltaic capacity.
China's potential installed capacity is 245 GW. At a price of 5.5 yuan/w, the market space will reach 1.3 trillion yuan. According to a market penetration rate of 15%, the total power generation of Changjiang Securities is 710 million KW, which corresponds to a market size of 3.9 trillion yuan.
In short, the data given by various agencies show that photovoltaic roofs are a new trillion-dollar track, and the potential of distributed photovoltaics with BIPV as the tuyere is huge.
BiPV (Building Integrated photovoltage), that is, building integrated photovoltaics, is a technology that integrates solar power generation equipment into buildings and building materials, and belongs to a type of distributed photovoltaic power station. BIPV is not a new concept. 15 years ago, China's first BIPV project landed.
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the average installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics was only 14.26%. By the end of 2020, centralized power plants accounted for 67%, and distributed power plants increased by 32%. In the first quarter of 2021, my country's new installed photovoltaic capacity was 5.33GW, of which distributed photovoltaic 2.81GW, accounting for 53% of the distributed photovoltaic installed capacity. Distributed photovoltaics have become mainstream.
From the perspective of product characteristics, BIPV makes full use of the roof area and can effectively increase the power per unit area by 15-30%. For new buildings, BIPV has obvious advantages in terms of cost and aesthetics.
Publish Time：2021-12-10
Sources：garcesolar
